by Jason Thomas, President of Healthy Brand Oil
For the week of 12/22/2025
***NOT A TRADE RECOMMENDATION***
Oilseeds and Energy Slide While Corn Holds Firm
Ag markets extended their losses last week, reinforcing the bearish tone that has persisted since the December WASDE. Nearly every major ag product finished lower, with pressure once again concentrated in the oilseed and energy-linked markets. Soybean oil led the decline, down 3.26%, followed by wheat (-3.68%), canola seed (-4.15%), and palm oil (-2.81%). Soybeans (-1.60%) and soybean meal (-0.46%) also closed lower, while corn stood out as the lone bright spot, finishing the week up 0.68%. Corn’s relative performance is notable and aligns with a lot of rumors of China buying seven cargos of corn last week. The market hasn’t seen confirmation on that purchase yet but the price performance might tell us all we need to know.
Vegetable oils remain the weakest segment of the complex, and the narrative has changed little from the prior week. Heating oil (diesel) fell another 3.71%, crude oil lost 1.60%, and the broader energy complex continues to act as a significant headwind for soybean oil. With biofuel policy still unresolved and renewable margins under pressure, product supply continues to run ahead of demand. Crushers remain running hard—supportive for soybean usage—but that pace also adds to already burdensome meal and oil supplies. Fundamentally, the veg-oil landscape remains challenging, though it’s worth noting that soybean oil seasonal tendencies begin to turn more constructive on both the 5- and 15-year views today. More on that below.
Wheat was another notable laggard, down 3.68% on the week, as global supplies remain ample and demand uninspiring. Even with periodic geopolitical headlines and export chatter, the market continues to struggle to attract sustained buying interest. Corn, however, continues to quietly separate itself from the rest of the row-crop space. Despite broad ag weakness, corn managed a modest gain, supported by strong export demand and relatively cleaner fundamentals compared with soybeans and wheat.
Outside markets painted a mixed but generally supportive macro backdrop. Equities were mostly higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.59% and the S&P modestly positive, though the Dow slipped 0.67%. Commodities outside of ag showed strength, led by copper (+2.82%) and natural gas (+2.59%). Gold added 1.36% as longer-term yields fell, with the U.S. 10-year down 0.88%. The Dollar Index edged higher by 0.33%, offering little relief to U.S. export competitiveness.
Looking ahead, this week should be relatively quiet, with modified trading hours on Wednesday for Christmas Eve and all major markets closed on Thursday for Christmas. Ag markets will reopen for a full session on Friday. Aside from routine weekly energy and ag export data, the calendar includes a few lower-profile reports such as Durable Goods and New Home Sales. A calmer week on the policy front wouldn’t hurt either—most market participants could use a breather heading into the holiday.
